se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 波澜壮阔的美股暴跌，终于逼出鲍威尔和特朗普先后发话。鲍威尔认为增长风险是se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“过渡性的se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”，而特朗普则号称对等关税具有灵活性，抄底资金趁机入场，美股避免了连续五周下挫，而两年期国债收益率更在鲍威尔发言后直挫se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">14点，资金重拾了联储今年减息两次的信心，债市大涨。美元指数升回se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">104。
se="14px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal"> 市场动荡，避险工具黄金价格一举冲破se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">3000se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">点，今年第se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">16se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">次创历史新高，铜价也创历史新高。产油国讨论削减产能，原油期货价反弹。德国修宪尘埃落地，德国国债止跌回稳，欧元转弱。中国经济开局向好，政府推出提振消费专项行动。不仅美联储，日本和英国央行上周开会也决定按兵不动。特朗普与普京和泽连斯基分别会面，停火尚未实现。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 从se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“耐心se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”到se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“过渡se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”，鲍威尔使出语言干预，再次证明自己是se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“央妈se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”的典范。在经济衰退风险日渐升高、物价压力屡压不下的情况下，联储se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">FOMC召开了三月会议。联储在最新的经济预测中，调低了se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">2025年se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">GDP增长预测，调高了通货膨胀预测。美股、美元都已跌到去年十一月总统选举前的水平，市场情绪低落，去风险呼声高涨。应该说，鲍威尔走进记者会的时候，手里攥着一把烂牌。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal"> FOMC的会后声明，删除了se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“增长与通胀风险相均衡的提法se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”，鲍威尔在记者会上也承认通胀回落未及预期，经济增速在放缓，特朗普新政导致政策性风险，然后话锋一转，提出应该穿过短期因素的迷雾而不作政策举动。他将目前的通胀压力、增长压力和政策压力，统统归为se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“过渡性se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“的。市场闻讯大喜，美股、美债和美元汇率一齐止跌回升。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 笔者认同鲍威尔对经济的判断，美国经济下滑大势已成，不过增长软着陆的机会比跌入衰退的机会更大。至于物价上涨是不是se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“过渡性se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“的还有待观察，而se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”不同寻常高se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“的不确定性来自特朗普政府的关税政策以及其他国家的报复措施。对此，联储需要观察和等待，所以暂停利率动作是合适的。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 笔者始终认为，本周期美国的主要风险不是来自实体经济，而来自金融风险。实体经济的杠杆并不高，居民消费和企业投资在回归正常水平和周期。金融市场则热钱横流、估值颇高、衍生产品丛生、连环爆煲的机会在上升。鲍威尔用如此温柔的语境向资金描述经济现状，顾忌的恐怕是金融市场，再次证明se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">Fed Put（联储市场保底）并非子虚乌有。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 联储政策上有改变的减少缩表（se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">QT）规模，将每月缩减资产负债表的规模从se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">250亿减少到se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">50亿美元。自从se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">2022年se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">6月，联储累计缩表约se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">2万亿美元，剩余流动性基本上被抽光了，所以下个月开始se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">QT规模大幅调低，以此维持发债成本的se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">稳定。值得一提的是，尽管点阵图中se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">FOMC成员预计减息的中位数多了，其实成员中不同意今年减息的人数也多了，所以点阵图中的中位数要慎用。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 鲍威尔记者会后，利率期货市场的定价显示，资金预期今年七月联储会减息一码，十月再减一码。鲍威尔当年用se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“耐心se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”二字，成功引导了市场预期，如今祭出se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“过渡se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”二字，继续带市场节奏。他的se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“央妈呵护se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”式口头干预奏效了，只是不知特朗普还可以玩出什么幺蛾子。随着鲍威尔和特朗普相继出口干预股市，这一轮恐慌性抛售应该已经告一段落，市场回归基本面因素。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 德国新任总理默兹所领导的基民党联盟，联同社民党和绿党，在新议会宣誓前冲刺完成了宪法修改，为军费扩张和赤字财政打开了大门。此举结束了几十年来德国坚持的均衡预算理念，四千多亿欧元的军费开支和五千亿的基础设施建设呼之欲出。五年近万亿欧元的新增开支，对于五千亿上下se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">GDP的德国无疑是巨大的，欧洲股市为之一振，德国债市则受到冲击。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 德国的工业生产已经连续五年萎缩了，威胁着se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">550万份高端制造业就业机会。俄乌冲突带来的能源困境、中国产业升级构成的挑战和美国贸易战的不确定性，令德国经济遭遇两德统一以来最大的挑战。默兹的刺激措施对德国se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">GDP有巨大的帮助，但是对可持续的经济增长却并无裨益。德国只不过成为最后一个加入用财赤换增长的se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">G7俱乐部。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 特朗普在俄乌冲突以及对欧关税问题上的态度，令欧洲突然发觉习以为常的军事保护伞不见了。欧洲央行行长引用法国诗句，se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“我们时代的麻烦，是未来不再会是过去se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”，相信这很反映欧洲精英们今天的心态。军事免费午餐的时代结束了，到底是央求美国回心转意，还是建立独立的自我防卫体系，成为欧洲的哈姆雷特之问。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal"> 1956年苏伊士运河危机爆发后，英法联军打算军事干预，但被美国强势逼回，欧洲当时就有过一次我们要不要有自己的军队和防卫系统的争论。之后英国决定靠近美国，法国决定军事自主，se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">1966年更脱离了北约指挥系统。但是军事自主是价格昂贵的奢侈品，从军事开支到武器研发都需要庞大的投入，何况二十七个国家貌合神离，三个和尚没水喝的窘境不断会上演。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
se="11px"/>
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 特朗普对欧态度的se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">U型转变，令欧洲羞愤交加，领袖们连续召开紧急会议，试图建立起一个无需美国的北约组织，经济学人se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">杂志更称，se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“欧洲现在都是戴高乐主义者se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">”。可惜戴高乐主义并不是开几次紧急会议就可以的。欧洲已经几十年没有作任何实质性军事准备了，在一个危机丛生、政坛昆乱的年代，各国究竟有多少真正的投入来达成此目标，的确有点尴尬。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left"> 本周重要数据不多，关注点有两个，第一是美国的se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">PCE通胀和se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">PCE消费，预计两个数字较上月均有明显反弹。第二个是东京se="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">CPI，估计食品通胀带动物价进一步上涨。
se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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se="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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